Credit Signal Lab
LOADING DAILY PRICES…
Inter-market awareness · education first
Read credit conditions before the equity story changes.
Connect Treasury yields, duration, corporate and municipal credit, private-credit canaries, and equity confirmation. Signals are evidence to investigate—not trade instructions.
Composite credit stress
Elevated
2 of 4 rules triggered
10Y yield
5.18%
25.7% · 1Y
Long duration
TLT $79.32
-11.5% · 1Y
Investment grade
LQD $103.21
-7.6% · 1Y
Municipal proxy
MUB $101.17
-4.6% · 1Y
Composite credit stress trend
How the score has moved through the four regime bands.
Latest
60Elevated
Expanding · +30 since Dec
Range 10–73 · 10 weeks
Contained
0–29
Watch
30–49
Elevated
50–69
Confirmed shock
70–100
Showing the stored monthly closes until the daily history finishes collecting. Evidence to investigate, not trade instructions.
Rule-based grading
The same four rules that produce the score above — graded by you first, then revealed.
Grade it yourself
Work the four rules before you look at the answer
Read each rule, check the symbols, choose your own call, then reveal the measured result. Doing this daily is how the chain becomes second nature.
Your score / measured
— / 60
0/4 rules matched
01. Sovereign rate shock
Weight 25%Are 10Y and 30Y yields pushing higher while long bonds break down?
- 10Y yield change (TNX) — rule: +25 bp or more is a shock+50 bp
- 30Y yield change (TYX) — rule: +25 bp or more is a shock+29 bp
- Long duration (TLT) — rule: −3% or worse is a breakdown-3.8%
02. Credit spread degradation
Weight 30%Is junk credit falling faster than Treasuries and investment grade?
- High yield (HYG) — rule: −3% or worse is weakness-2.0%
- HYG minus Treasuries (IEI) — rule: −2% or worse means spreads widening+0.3%
- Investment grade (LQD) — rule: −3% or worse is weakness-2.9%
03. Fringe liquidity and canaries
Weight 25%Are private credit, regional lending and municipal debt cracking at the edges?
- Private credit (BIZD) — rule: −5% or worse breaks the range+3.7%
- Regional lenders (KRE) — rule: −8% or worse signals lending contraction-2.5%
- Municipal level (MUB) — rule: below 100 is the watched level$101.17
- Leveraged muni fund (PCQ) — rule: −5% or worse signals discount stress-8.4%
04. Equity confirmation
Weight 20%Are small caps and payroll proxies breaking away from large caps?
- Small caps (IWM) — rule: −3% or worse is weakness-4.0%
- IWM minus SPY — rule: −3% or worse is divergence-7.5%
- Payroll proxy (PAYX) — rule: −8% or worse is a labour tell-11.8%
Rates vs risk assets
Indexed to 100 at first monthly observation
5-minute routine
0/6 COMPLETECompare FVX, TNX and TYX. Is the rise persistent?
Compare SHY → IEI → IEF → TLT as yields move.
Compare LQD and HYG for spreading weakness.
Look for agreement across MUB, HYD and PCQ.
Check BIZD and KRE against single lenders like ALLY and CRMT.
Check IWM, QQQ, SPY and payroll-adjacent names.
Credit canaries
Transmission chain
Yields rise
Financing costs climb
Duration falls
Long bonds react first
Credit widens
LQD and HYG weaken
Munis & canaries
MUB and BIZD widen risk
Equities reprice
IWM and QQQ respond
Swap in a company for today
Compare any listed company against the permanent credit baskets.
Credit trouble moves to wherever the last cycle built the most leverage, so the single companies worth watching change over time. Add any listed company for today and compare it with the permanent baskets below.
| Symbol | Last | Today | Role | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| HYG | $77.86 | — | High-yield bonds | |
| BIZD | $12.91 | — | BDC / private credit | |
| KRE | $70.60 | — | Regional banking ETF | |
| CRMT | $1.06 | — | Subprime auto lender | |
| SPY | $771.35 | — | S&P 500 ETF |
A single company can fall for its own reasons, so treat added names as a question to investigate and let the baskets decide whether credit itself is tightening.